Misused Subway Crime Metrics
A long chorus of politicians, government officials, and mass transit advocates have consistently misused baseline metrics to measure subway crime in New York City (NYC) to give riders a false sense of security. For example, New York City Police Department Transit Chief Michael Kemper, appeared on PIX11 morning news last week and tried to reassure NYC residents that the subways are safe. Specifically, Kemper said that during 2023, only “1.8% of all crime in the city occurs in the subway system.” While the specific crime numbers used by Kemper were correct, he used the wrong baseline metric to measure subway crime and safety.
Whether the baseline metric is subway crime as a percentage of all crime or felony crimes per million subway passengers, those metrics fail to consider the amount of time people spend on NYC’s subways compared to the amount of time they spend outside or off the subway. As detailed in the report below, people are more likely to be victims of crime while they are on the subway, than off the subway.
Measuring Subway Crime
The average passenger spends less than 2 hours per day (53 minutes per trip) on the subway and over 22 hours per day outside the subway. During 2022 (the latest full year numbers available) the Metropolitan Transit Authority (MTA) reported 1,013,425,465 paid subway trips (2.776 million subway trips per day). The MTA estimates that 13.5% of subway riders do not pay their fares. Therefore, the total paid and unpaid subway trips was 1,171,590,133 in 2022 (3,209,836 subway trips per day). The population of NYC in 2022 was 8.35 million people. Therefore, most New York City residents do not use the subway every day.
If we consider the amount of time NYC residents collectively spend in the subway and compare it to how much time they spend off the subway, at most, they spent 1.43% of their time on the subway. However, during 2022, 1.85% (2,345/126,589) of all crimes in NYC occurred on the subway. Therefore, NYC residents were 29% more likely to be victims of crime on the subway, than off the subway.
The MTA’s subway trip numbers are not inclusive to NYC residents, but also include those people who live outside the city but use the subway when they visit the city. Once again, it does not consider the amount of time those visitors spend outside the subway. For example, a NYC Planning report, said that during 2017 973,000 people commuted to NYC from outside the city for work on a daily basis, while 273,000 NYC residents commuted to work outside the city (latest official numbers available). During 2022, 56.7 million tourists visited NYC, adding 155,000 people to the city’s daily population.
NYC residents and visitors collectively spent 1.36% of their time inside the subway, while 1.85% of NYC crime occurred on the subway. Therefore, NYC residents and visitors collectively were 36% more likely to be a victim of crime on the subway, than off the subway.
Adjusted for Motor Vehicle Theft
Motor vehicle thefts can occur on the streets, but not in the subway. Also, no one steals subway cars. In 2022, 13,479 of the 126,589 major felonies reported by the NYPD included grand larceny auto. If we adjust for motor vehicle theft, then 2.07% of crime in NYC occurred on the subway, while residents and visitors in NYC spent less than 1.36% of their time on the subway. Therefore, NYC residents and visitors were 52% more likely to be a victim of crime on the subway than off the subway if we considered motor vehicle thefts.
Written by,
Sam Antar
Additional Information
I live in Manhattan, ride the subways regularly, walk 5 to 10 miles a day, and do not own a car.
Additional Reading
DATA ANALYSIS: How NYC Officials Fudge the Numbers on Crime, By Jano Tantongco
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