The First Deception: A Vanishing Year
Bragg took office on January 1st, 2022, with a controversial “Day One” memo that promised to reduce or eliminate charges for numerous crimes. But his recent statistical presentation begins in December 2022, conveniently erasing his tumultuous first year in office. This selective timeline conceals a stark reality: when measured from 2021 (pre-Bragg) to 2024, total index crimes have surged 13.1%, not declined 10% as his graphic suggests.
The Second Deception: Vanishing Violent Crime
Bragg’s presentation completely omits the overall violent crime category, where the numbers tell a devastating story:
- Total violent crime: Up 11.1% (8,405 to 9,342)
- Rape: Up 19.9% (267 to 320)
- Robbery: Up 4.9% (3,407 to 3,575)
- Felony Assault: Up 15.7% (4,645 to 5,375)
These statistics represent 937 additional violent crime victims whose stories find no place in Bragg’s narrative.
The Third Deception: Murder vs. Attempted Murder
While Bragg touts a decrease in murders, this “improvement” masks a disturbing shift. The 14-case reduction in murders coincides with 730 additional felony assaults – a category that includes attempted murders. This statistical sleight of hand ignores a crucial factor: the difference between a murder and an attempted murder often comes down to the skills of trauma surgeons rather than criminal intent.
The Fourth Deception: Grand Larceny Games
The presentation claims a 7% drop in grand larceny since December 2022. However, comparing to pre-Bragg numbers reveals a 23.6% increase, from 13,233 cases in 2021 to 16,354 in 2024. This represents over 3,000 additional victims of serious theft.
The Fifth Deception: Burglary Statistics
While Bragg claims a 33% reduction in burglaries since 2022, the actual reduction from 2021 is 11.2%. This dramatic difference in percentages raises questions about what happened in 2022 that Bragg would prefer to omit from the statistical record.
The Sixth Deception: The Shooting Statistics Shell Game
Perhaps most troubling is the methodology behind shooting statistics. Bragg claims a 31% reduction, but this relies on a definition that would surprise most Manhattan residents. A “shooting” only counts when bullets strike flesh. This means:
- Missed shots don’t count
- Spray-and-pray incidents with no casualties are excluded
- Drive-by shootings without injuries aren’t recorded
- Shots fired into occupied buildings or vehicles aren’t counted unless someone is hit
This definition essentially rewards luck rather than measuring the true level of gun violence in Manhattan’s streets.
The Human Cost
Behind these statistical manipulations lie real victims:
- 53 additional rape victims
- 168 additional robbery victims
- 730 additional felony assault victims
- 3,121 additional grand larceny victims
- 937 more violent crime victims in total
The Pattern of Deception
This systematic manipulation of crime statistics follows the pattern established in Bragg’s “Day One” memo, which promised to reduce incarceration by:
- Refusing to seek prison sentences for most crimes
- Downgrading armed robbery to petit larceny if the gun “didn’t create a genuine risk of physical harm”
- Treating armed robbery as shoplifting if the weapon remained in a pocket
The Questions That Remain
If Bragg’s policies are truly working, why employ such elaborate statistical misdirection? Why choose December 2022 as a starting point rather than January 2022? Why omit violent crime statistics entirely? Why use definitions of shootings that defy common understanding?
The answer lies in the raw numbers: Manhattan has become measurably more dangerous under Bragg’s tenure. This reality – visible in the comprehensive statistics but hidden in his presentation – suggests a leadership more committed to manufacturing success than achieving it.
Written by Sam Antar
© 2024 Sam Antar. All rights reserved.
Data was sourced from NYPD CompStat and NYC Open Data