Albany’s Crime Numbers Game

Through October 2024, Governor Hochul freely pushed her narrative of declining crime across New York State – conveniently excluding New York City’s numbers, which weren’t available on the state’s website. Then in early November 2024, months after they should have been released, the New York State Division of Criminal Justice Services finally deigned to upload New York City’s 2023 crime data. Instead of providing accurate figures that would have shattered the administration’s carefully crafted story, her state agencies chose to rely on fatally flawed numbers that bore little resemblance to the horrifying reality of violent crime in the city, just as the FBI had done before them, as I exposed in my September 23, 2024 blog post.

By ignoring the NYPD’s more accurate violent crime numbers in favor of their own creative mathematics, the Hochul administration first excluded and then buried NYC’s true statistics. When they finally included them, they reported a decline in violent crime statewide of 7.3% when they should have reported an increase of 0.7%. And for New York City itself, the state’s statistical sleight of hand produced a magical decline of 8.7% in violent crime when the NYPD data showed an increase of 2.4%. Quite a trick for an administration that claims public safety is its “number one priority.”

A 22-Year Pattern of Alignment Suddenly Shattered

From 2001 to 2022, both the FBI and New York State had consistently reported higher violent crime statistics for New York City than those provided by the NYPD. This was because the FBI and NYS use the broader definitions of the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) system, while the NYPD adheres to the more stringent New York State Penal Law (NYSPL) classifications.

Despite these definition differences, the overall violent crime trends reported by the state, the FBI, and the NYPD were remarkably consistent for over two decades:

• Murder statistics aligned perfectly
• Robbery figures showed minimal differences (less than 0.06%)
• The state and FBI often showed higher numbers for rape and aggravated assault

The 2023 Statistical Anomaly

Then came 2023, and this predictable pattern didn’t just drift – it shattered like a broken promise to the public. The state’s numbers didn’t merely drift lower – they plunged beneath NYPD figures in an unprecedented reversal that defied both logic and history:

The state’s data showed alarming discrepancies:

• Murders: NYS reported 402, while the NYPD reported 391 – a 2.8% overstatement
• Robberies: NYS reported 16,618, compared to NYPD’s 16,910 – 1.7% fewer
• Overall violent crimes: NYS reported 55,988, down 8.7% from the previous year

Contrastingly, New York City’s data showed a 2.422632% rise in violent crimes for 2023. This gap indicates that the state’s data might have missed around 6,788 violent crimes. This is not a minor miscalculation; it represents 6,788 victims whose experiences were omitted from the statistics. Based on the state’s reported 61,293 violent crimes in NYC for 2022 and the NYPD’s 2.4% increase in 2023, the expected number should have been close to 62,776. However, the state’s reported figure was only 55,988 violent crimes, disregarding 6,788 violent crimes from the official tally.

The Political Exploitation of Flawed Data

Governor Hochul, who repeatedly promotes a narrative of declining crime rates as evidence of her administration’s success, has shown no interest in addressing these glaring statistical discrepancies. Her broad claims about improving public safety conveniently align with her agencies’ flawed reporting that transforms nearly 6,788 actual crimes into mere statistical ghosts. When the state’s chief executive benefits from – and fails to correct – such blatant statistical manipulation by her own agencies, it raises serious questions about whether public safety is truly her “number one priority” or merely a convenient political talking point.

When the state finally graced us with NYC’s numbers, they didn’t use the more accurate NYPD statistics showing the increase. Instead, they chose their own flawed numbers that conveniently undercounted around 6,788 violent crimes. How convenient.

The mathematics of this manipulation tell a damning story:

• Total violent crimes reported by NYS: 78,930
• NYS undercount of NYC violent crimes: 6,788
• Actual 2023 NYS total (adding back missing crimes): 85,718
• 2022 NYS total for comparison: 85,123

The Impact:

• Reported decrease using flawed numbers: -6,193 crimes (-7.3%)
• Actual increase using correct numbers: +595 crimes (+0.7%)

This means the state’s flawed numbers transformed what should have been reported as a slight increase into an apparent significant decrease, understating New York State’s violent crime total by nearly 7,000 incidents. That’s not just bad math – it’s a betrayal of public trust, one that turns thousands of real crimes into statistical ghosts.

A System-Wide Failure of Leadership

What makes this situation particularly troubling isn’t just the numbers – it’s the deliberate choice by the Hochul administration to first exclude and then misrepresent NYC’s crime data. For over two decades, the state’s historically higher numbers served as a backstop against undercounting. The sudden reversal of this pattern in 2023, and the administration’s eager adoption of these lower numbers, suggests a disturbing prioritization of political narrative over public safety reality.

The implications extend far beyond mere statistics. When the governor and her officials promote their narrative of declining crime rates, they’re not just making a mathematical error – they’re potentially:

• Misallocating precious law enforcement resources based on phantom improvements
• Making policy decisions using distorted data
• Undermining public trust in government reporting
• Creating a dangerous false sense of security in vulnerable communities

In the end, this isn’t just about numbers – it’s about truth, trust, and the safety of New Yorkers. When state officials choose to present crime data in ways that obscure rather than illuminate the true state of public safety, they’re not just manipulating statistics. They’re compromising the very foundation of public trust and effective law enforcement. Each missing number represents a real victim, a real crime, a real story that deserves to be told – and counted.

In New York’s statistical shell game, the truth isn’t just hidden – it’s being mugged in broad daylight, while the governor’s office looks the other way.

This analysis is based on extensive review of FBI crime reporting, NYPD statistics, and NYS Division of Criminal Justice Services data for 2022-2023. All calculations have been verified against official sources.

Written by Sam Antar
© 2024 Sam Antar. All rights reserved.