How NYC’s Crime Statistics Lost All Meaning in 2023

In 2023, New York City’s crime reporting system experienced an unprecedented breakdown that undermined two decades of statistical reliability. When the state finally released its delayed 2023 crime statistics in November 2024, the numbers revealed more than mathematical discrepancies – they exposed a systematic manipulation of public safety data by officials more interested in political narratives than transparency.

The state reported an 8.7% decrease in violent crime while NYPD data showed a 2.4% increase.

Similarly, state figures indicated a 9.0% rise in property crime while NYPD reflected a 1.1% decrease. This wasn’t mere statistical variation – it marked the collapse of a system that had reliably tracked public safety for over two decades.

Understanding Crime Categories and Reporting Systems

New York City employs two parallel reporting systems for index crimes. The state uses FBI Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) definitions, while the NYPD follows New York State Penal Law classifications. Index crimes comprise violent crimes (murder, rape, robbery, and felony assault) and property crimes (burglary, grand larceny, and grand larceny of motor vehicles). Despite different methodologies, these systems moved in lockstep from 2001 to 2022, providing consistent insight into crime trends – until 2023 shattered this reliability.

The Historical Pattern: 22 Years of Predictable Differences

From 2001 through 2022, the parallel reporting systems maintained remarkable consistency. While the state’s broader UCR definitions typically captured more incidents than NYPD’s stricter classifications, both systems’ numbers moved in concert. When NYPD reported increases, state numbers showed proportional rises. When NYPD data indicated decreases, state figures reflected similar declines. This predictable relationship provided a reliable foundation for public safety assessment – until political convenience trumped statistical integrity.

Timeline and Impact of Statistical Divergence

The manipulation of New York’s crime statistics unfolded through a series of carefully timed announcements and selective data presentations by state and city officials. Each revelation further exposed how political messaging trumped accurate crime reporting, culminating in the discovery of thousands of missing violent crimes in the state’s data.

Governor Hochul: The State-Level Shell Game

Through October 2024, Governor Hochul orchestrated a sophisticated manipulation of New York’s crime statistics that stretched the boundaries of statistical credibility. Her November 9, 2023 “comprehensive overview” exemplified selective presentation, excluding NYC’s complete data while trumpeting a “6 percent decrease in violent crime” outside the city. Her administration methodically cherry-picked favorable first-half 2023 data, surgically separated NYC statistics, and strategically switched between FBI and NYPD counting methods to paint the most politically advantageous picture.

By November 2024, when the state finally released NYC’s data, the extent of this statistical sleight-of-hand became clear through basic arithmetic. Starting with the state’s own baseline of 61,293 violent crimes reported for NYC in 2022, and applying NYPD’s documented 2.4% increase in 2023, the real number should have been approximately 62,776. Instead, the state reported only 55,988 violent crimes – magically erasing 6,788 violent crimes from official records.

The implications proved staggering. What the state initially reported as a decrease of 6,193 crimes (-7.3%) was actually an increase of 595 crimes (+0.7%) when accounting for the missing 6,788 crimes. The state’s 2022 total of 85,123 had grown to 85,718 in 2023, not fallen to 78,930 as reported. Through this statistical alchemy, Hochul’s administration transformed a genuine increase in violent crime into an illusory decrease – burying thousands of real crimes beneath misleading statistics.

Mayor Adams: The Selective Timing Strategy

On January 3, 2024, Mayor Adams misleadingly tweeted, “Thanks to the men and women of @NYPDnews, the safest big city in America got EVEN safer in 2023.” Overall crime was down, including 5 of the 7 major crime categories.” This claim obscured the dramatic increase in crime under his administration, where index crimes surged from 102,741 in 2021 to 126,589 in 2022, and further to 126,786 in 2023 – a 23.4% increase during his tenure.

The following day, NYPD released preliminary 2023 numbers reporting a modest 0.3% decrease in index crimes. By February 2024, when the department released its historical numbers, the data showed a 0.2% increase, contradicting both Adams’ tweet and the preliminary report. Neither Adams nor the NYPD acknowledged this reversal, which received minimal public attention despite its significance for public safety assessment. The state’s numbers, released ten months later in November 2024, painted an even more concerning picture, indicating NYC’s total index crimes increased 4.4% from 237,64 in 2022 to 248,203 in 2023.

DA Bragg: Manhattan’s Statistical Sleight of Hand

Manhattan District Attorney Bragg’s January 5, 2024 announcement claimed a 5% decrease in total index crimes, but this figure obscured crucial context. Under his tenure, index crimes increased dramatically from pre-2022 levels. Prior to Bragg’s term in 2021, Manhattan recorded 27,638 index crimes. This number surged to 34,718 in 2022, representing a 25.6% increase. While 2023 showed a slight decline to 33,202, this figure remained 20.1% above pre-Bragg levels.

The state’s figures, disclosed ten months later in November 2024, revealed a more troubling scenario, showing that Manhattan’s total index crimes had a slight increase of 0.4%, from 69,454 in 2022 to 69,706 in 2023.

The Statistical Shell Game Continues in 2024

The manipulation of crime statistics persists into 2024 as officials refine their techniques of statistical misdirection. Hochul continues pushing her narrative of declining crime while excluding NYC’s numbers from the state’s website. Both Adams and Bragg regularly omit the surge in violent crime from public announcements, preferring to highlight cherry-picked categories showing decreases.

Their manipulation of baseline years has grown increasingly brazen. Adams consistently uses 2022 as his comparison point – concealing the dramatic crime increases after he took office in 2022, when index crimes jumped from 102,741 in 2021 to 126,589. Similarly, Bragg regularly compares current numbers to 2022 rather than 2021, hiding how Manhattan’s index crimes soared from 27,638 to 34,718 during his first year.

This ongoing manipulation suggests 2023’s statistical breakdown wasn’t just an anomaly – it heralded a new era where crime statistics serve political narratives rather than public safety.

Conclusion: A System Broken Beyond Recognition

The 2023 breakdown of New York’s crime statistics represents more than mathematical discrepancies – it marks the collapse of a system that worked reliably for 22 years. Each manipulated statistic represents real crimes with real victims, their stories buried beneath politically convenient numbers. Until statistical reliability returns – until state and city numbers again move in consistent patterns as they did for 22 years – New York’s crime statistics will remain what they became in 2023: competing versions of reality, shaped more by political convenience than statistical truth.

Written by Sam Antar
© 2024 Sam Antar. All rights reserved.

This analysis is based on comprehensive review of NYC crime statistics 2001-2023, comparing New York State and NYPD reporting systems. All calculations have been verified against official sources.