DA Bragg’s Social Media Victory Lap Accidentally Exposes Higher Murder Count
In what might be the most spectacular self-own in recent criminal justice history, Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg’s attempt to showcase his crime-fighting success has instead exposed an alarming truth: murders in Manhattan have INCREASED during 2024, not decreased as the NYPD claims. Here’s the bombshell:
When NYPD CompStat reports 61 murders in Manhattan for 2024 (January 1 – November 3), claiming a decrease from 63 murders during the comparable 44-week period in 2023 (January 2 – November 5), Bragg’s own X post reveals 69 murders for the 2024 period. That’s a nearly 10% INCREASE in murders, accidentally exposed by the very person trying to prove the opposite.
You read that right – in his eagerness to claim a 14% reduction from 2021’s numbers, Bragg inadvertently revealed that murders have actually gone UP year-over-year. It’s like catching someone in a lie because they tried too hard to prove they were telling the truth.
A Tale of Rising Violence
The story gets darker when we look at the NYPD’s own year-over-year comparison. While Bragg celebrates cherry-picked statistics, virtually every category of violent crime is surging. Rape has skyrocketed by 22.7%, felony assaults are up by 7.3%, and overall violent crime has surged 4.5%. Yet somehow, this translates to “making Manhattan safer.” If this is safer, I’d hate to see dangerous.
The Great Felony Assault Shell Game
Here’s where things get really interesting (and by interesting, I mean deeply troubling). Bragg’s victory lap about murder reductions doesn’t add up – literally. He claims murders dropped from 80 in 2021 to 69 in 2024. But according to NYPD Open Data, 2021 actually had 76 murders, not 80. Meanwhile, felony assaults have skyrocketed during his tenure. From 4,077 assaults in 2021 to 4,759 in 2024 – that’s a staggering 16.7% increase, or 682 more violent encounters on Manhattan’s streets.
But here’s the real kicker: In Manhattan’s magical world of crime statistics, attempted murders vanish into the felony assault category. Did you survive a shooting thanks to a skilled ER team? Sorry, that’s not counted as an attempted murder – it’s just another assault statistic. How convenient.
The numbers tell the true story: While Bragg celebrates what he claims are 11 fewer murders compared to 2021 (dropping from his claimed 80 to 69), NYPD Open Data tells a different story. With only 76 murders recorded in 2021, not 80, and 69 murders in 2024, that’s actually a reduction of just 7 murders, not 11. His own baseline numbers don’t even match official records.
Meanwhile, Manhattan has seen 682 additional felony assaults. The burning question: how many of these “assault” victims were actually attempted murder targets, alive today only because of lightning-fast FDNY ambulance response times and skilled ER surgical teams?
The Art of Statistical Gaslighting
The current shooting statistics present a similarly incomplete picture of gun violence in Manhattan, as they exclude numerous gun-related incidents. These statistics don’t count:
- Firearms discharged during crimes but not resulting in injuries
- Shots fired that miss their intended victims
- Guns used to commit crimes without being fired
- Armed robberies where the weapon isn’t discharged
- Threats with firearms that terrorize neighborhoods
It’s like claiming you’ve solved drunk driving by only counting accidents where someone died – while ignoring all the near-misses, property damage, and countless incidents where impaired drivers somehow made it home without killing anyone.
In other words, Bragg’s shooting statistics aren’t just incomplete – they’re intentionally blind to the daily reality of gun violence that Manhattan residents face. When you don’t count a shooting unless someone gets hit, you’re not measuring gun violence – you’re measuring marksmanship.
The Questions That Demand Answers
- How did the DA’s office “find” 8 more murders than the NYPD recorded?
- Why aren’t attempted murders classified as such, instead of being buried in felony assault statistics?
- How many would-be murder victims survived only because of modern medical miracles?
- When did we decide that getting shot and surviving shouldn’t count as a shooting?
The Real Cost of Creative Counting
This isn’t just about numbers – it’s about trust. Every time officials play statistical shell games with public safety data, they erode public confidence. Every massaged statistic, every conveniently excluded data point, every carefully curated comparison chips away at the foundation of accountability.
The Emperor’s New Crime Stats
Only in Manhattan could a DA accidentally reveal an increase in murders while trying to brag about a decrease. It would be almost impressive if it weren’t so disturbing. This isn’t just moving the goalposts – it’s playing on entirely different fields with different scorekeepers, and somehow still scoring an own goal.
The next time you hear about dramatic crime reductions in Manhattan, remember: not only might those numbers be misleading – they might accidentally be revealing the very increases they’re trying to hide. In the end, the truth has a way of slipping out, even when it’s buried under layers of statistical manipulation.
Perhaps it’s time to add two new categories to Manhattan’s crime statistics: “Statistical Self-Contradiction” and “Aggravated Gaslighting of Public Safety Data.” At least then we’d have something everyone could agree on.
Written by Sam Antar
© 2024 Sam Antar. All rights reserved.