NYPD's Statistical Manipulation and Racial Disparities in NYC Crime

Statistical Shell Game: How NYPD’s Data Manipulation Obscures Rising Violence While Racial Disparities Remain Hidden

CompStat—the New York Police Department’s comprehensive crime tracking and analysis system—has become a political weapon for Mayor Eric Adams, systematically manipulated to present a false narrative of declining urban crime. Last week, we exposed the NYPD’s troubling manipulation of murder statistics, but the story goes deeper than just citywide totals—it requires examining who truly bears the burden of violence in our city.

The deception is simple but effective: in 2023, the NYPD included 29 “Homicide-Negligent, Unclassified” cases in their CompStat murder totals. Then in 2024, they quietly excluded 26 similar cases from their murder tallies without any public announcement or explanation of this significant methodological change. This statistical sleight of hand transforms what should be reported as an increase into a fictional 2.3% decrease—creating a politically convenient narrative of improved public safety.

When consistently applying the same methodology across both years, the data tells a different story: actual intentional killings increased by 5.5%, and when including all homicides (both intentional and negligent), the total rises from 391 to 408—a 4.3% increase that directly contradicts the NYPD’s narrative of declining violence.

While these manipulated CompStat figures dominate public safety discussions, a deeper examination of the NYPD’s separately maintained Open Data reveals something CompStat isn’t designed to show: the profound racial disparities in who experiences this violence. In New York City today, a Black resident faces a murder risk nearly ten times higher than a white resident, and a Hispanic New Yorker is nearly five times more likely to be murdered.

This article examines both the manipulation of CompStat figures and the racial disparities revealed by the NYPD’s Open Data that are absent from public safety narratives. The aggregate numbers tell only part of the story—understanding who is most affected by violent crime provides a more complete picture of public safety in New York City.

Deliberate Deception Under Expert Oversight

This manipulation appears deliberate given Commissioner Tisch’s credentials. As a Harvard Law graduate with extensive technology expertise who previously served as NYPD’s Deputy Commissioner of Information Technology, these inconsistencies cannot be dismissed as statistical naiveté. Despite championing “data-driven policing,” Tisch’s silence on these discrepancies represents a failure of leadership from someone whose expertise should guarantee statistical integrity.

Behind the Numbers: Who Bears the Burden of Violence

While CompStat manipulation distorts the big picture, a deeper examination of the NYPD’s Open Data reveals the troubling reality beneath the surface. In New York City today, a Black resident faces a murder risk nearly ten times higher than a white resident. A Hispanic New Yorker is nearly five times more likely to be murdered. These aren’t just statistics—they represent a fundamental inequality in the most basic right: the right to safety.

Looking beyond the NYPD’s questionable accounting practices and examining the raw data reveals a stark pattern. Violent crime in New York City doesn’t affect all communities equally—it falls with crushing disproportionality on Black and Hispanic residents.

The Data Behind the Disparities

The 2024 figures from the NYPD’s Open Data (not CompStat) reveal a city where your race dramatically affects your risk of becoming a victim:

Black New Yorkers (21% of population) account for 52.6% of murder victims, 35.7% of rape victims, 28.4% of robbery victims, and 39.3% of felony assault victims
Hispanic New Yorkers (29% of population) represent 34.3% of murder victims, 39.5% of rape victims, 43.9% of robbery victims, and 38.1% of assault victims
Combined, Black and Hispanic residents experience 86.9% of murders, 75.2% of rapes, 72.3% of robberies, and 77.4% of felony assaults—while making up just 50% of the city’s population
Asian/Pacific Islander New Yorkers (14.5% of population) account for 5.5% of murder victims, 7.8% of rape victims, 15.6% of robbery victims, and 9.1% of felony assault victims
White New Yorkers (31.2% of population) represent 7.6% of murder victims, 16.5% of rape victims, 11.1% of robbery victims, and 13.2% of felony assault victims

These stark disparities don’t exist in a vacuum. Decades of residential segregation, economic disinvestment, and unequal access to resources have concentrated poverty in predominantly Black and Hispanic neighborhoods. These underlying conditions create environments where violence is more likely to occur. However, recognizing these factors doesn’t diminish the urgency of addressing the immediate safety crisis facing these communities.

The NYPD’s Open Data offers these comprehensive demographic breakdowns, providing detailed information completely absent from CompStat reporting. While CompStat may be manipulated to present a rosy citywide picture, the Open Data reveals the underlying racial disparities in violent crime that remain consistent regardless of how the numbers are massaged.

The Staggering Risk Gap: Uncovering the True Landscape of Urban Violence

Beyond the manipulation of CompStat numbers lies an even more disturbing reality—the extreme disparities in victimization risk across racial groups. While the NYPD’s reporting attempts to smooth over these differences, the Open Data reveals stark inequalities that cannot be hidden by statistical sleight of hand.

Black New Yorkers face a murder risk 929.8% higher than white residents. This means a Black New Yorker is more than 10 times more likely to be murdered, representing a stark and deeply troubling disparity in public safety. Despite comprising only 21% of the city’s population, Black residents bear a dramatically disproportionate burden of homicide victimization.
Hispanic New Yorkers face a murder risk 386.0% higher than white residents. Making up 29% of the population, Hispanic New Yorkers experience nearly five times the murder risk of white residents, highlighting the systemic inequalities that put minority communities at significantly greater risk of violent crime.
Asian/Pacific Islander New Yorkers face a murder risk 55.8% higher than white residents. While this percentage is lower compared to Black and Hispanic communities, it still represents a substantial elevated risk of murder for Asian/Pacific Islander residents, who make up 14.5% of the city’s population.

In simple terms: a Black New Yorker is more than 10.3 times more likely to be murdered than a white New Yorker. A Hispanic resident is 4.9 times more likely to be murdered.

Sexual Violence: Analyzing Relative Risk by Demographic Group

The 2024 data reveals significant disparities in rape victimization risk across New York City’s demographic groups when compared to White residents:
Black New Yorkers face a 221.0% higher risk of rape victimization than white residents, making them more than three times as likely to be victims
Hispanic New Yorkers experience a 157.3% higher risk of rape victimization compared to white residents
When Black and Hispanic populations are analyzed as a combined demographic group (representing 50% of NYC’s population), they face a 184.1% higher risk of rape victimization
Asian/Pacific Islander residents show only a marginal 2.0% higher risk compared to white residents

These stark disparities in relative risk highlight a sexual violence landscape where the burden falls disproportionately on Black and Hispanic communities. The data reveals that a Black New Yorker is more than three times as likely to be a rape victim compared to a White New Yorker, while Hispanic residents face approximately 2.5 times the risk.

Most concerning is the combined impact on Black and Hispanic communities, which together experience nearly triple the rape victimization risk of White residents despite comprising only half of the city’s population. This pattern of elevated risk continues across other violent crime categories, pointing to systemic inequalities in public safety that demand targeted intervention strategies.

Robbery: Striking Racial Disparities in Victimization Risk

The robbery statistics from the Open Data reveal similarly alarming disparities, with minority communities facing a significantly higher risk compared to white residents:

Hispanic New Yorkers face a 325.5% higher robbery risk
Black New Yorkers experience a 280.1% higher risk
Asian/Pacific Islander residents encounter a 202.4% elevated risk

Felony Assault: Disproportionate Impact on Minority Communities

Felony assaults present an even more troubling picture, with a citywide increase of 6.6% that masks a deeply unequal distribution of risk. Black and Hispanic residents bear a disproportionate 77.4% of all felony assault cases:

Black New Yorkers face a 342.3% higher risk of felony assault than white residents
Hispanic New Yorkers experience a 210.5% elevated risk
Asian/Pacific Islander residents encounter a 48.3% higher likelihood

Real Impact, Real Solutions

The NYPD’s statistical manipulation under Commissioner Tisch’s watch has profound consequences that extend far beyond mere numbers. Distorted data misguides policy decisions, erodes community trust, masks systemic inequalities, and prevents effective interventions in the communities most affected by violence.

Addressing these disparities requires concrete actions: independent statistical oversight by experts and community representatives; mandatory transparency for any methodological changes; community-specific violence reduction programs like Cure Violence; targeted economic investment; and expanded trauma services in high-victimization neighborhoods.

Behind each statistic is a human life. The NYPD’s shell game doesn’t just make the mayor look good—it obscures the fundamental inequality in public safety that defines our city. Creating a safer New York for all starts with honest reporting and a commitment to addressing the systemic factors that concentrate violence in minority communities.

Until we confront these disparities directly, we cannot claim to be addressing public safety in any meaningful way. And until the NYPD’s leadership—particularly a commissioner with data expertise like Jessica Tisch—commits to statistical honesty, any claims of “data-driven policing” remain hollow rhetoric masking a political agenda.

Written by Sam Antar

Methodology Note: This analysis uses NYPD’s Open Data (2023–2024) instead of CompStat reports. Unlike the NYPD’s headline CompStat numbers, the Open Data allows us to examine both intentional murders and negligent homicides separately and consistently. All racial/ethnic calculations use only documented cases where race/ethnicity is known (43,267 of 48,157 total victims).